Pakistan's presidential election Down to the wire

Oct 4th 2007 LAHORE From The Economist print editionEven a rigged vote in a depleted electoral college can be a cliff-hanger

HE ALREADY had the numbers, but that was not enough. General Pervez Musharraf enjoyed the parliamentary majority he needed to be re-elected president of Pakistan on October 6th as scheduled. But without an agreement with Benazir Bhutto, a former prime minister and leader of Pakistan's most popular political party, it would have been a hollow victory. As The Economist went to press, the final details of such a deal were being hammered out. Even so, brinkmanship on both sides and a legal tangle in the Supreme Court meant that the general's re-election was still far from a done deal.

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Down but not out

General Musharraf is embroiled in constitutional and political battles that hinge on prickly judges, street agitation and fine points of law. Benazir Bhutto, the one person who can bail him out, has played hard to get. Twice-elected to—and twice-ousted from—the prime minister's office, she has been in exile sheltering from a sheaf of corruption charges. She has been negotiating with General Musharraf for the past two years. She wanted amnesty from prosecution for herself and others, a free and fair election and the right to be prime minister a third time (at present banned under the Musharraf-mangled constitution). In return she says she would accept (but not vote for) him as a president, provided he resigns his post as army chief.

General Musharraf had been stalling. His backers in the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Q) party were loth to countenance any deal with their sworn political enemy. But if no deal were concluded before the presidential elections, Miss Bhutto's People's Party, which won nearly 29% of the vote in the last general elections in 2002, would have resigned from the federal and provincial parliaments that form the electoral college. Earlier this week more than 160 members of other opposition parties had resigned from the parliaments in protest at General Musharraf's attempt to have himself elected while still in uniform. Had Miss Bhutto's supporters followed them, the election would have appeared a wholly illegitimate farce.

Miss Bhutto's dalliance with General Musharraf has been controversial. It has allowed her nemesis, Nawaz Sharif, another former prime minister, to present himself implausibly as the opposition's democrat, having no truck with dictators. Last month, on his return from exile to Pakistan, he was presented with corruption charges and swiftly packed off again.
Agreement with Miss Bhutto, however, will not remove every obstacle between General Musharraf and re-election. There remained still the risk of a last-minute spanner thrown in the works by the Supreme Court. The court became the focal point of popular agitation in July, when it reinstated its maverick chief justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry, whom General Musharraf had sacked in March. The court has since crossed swords with General Musharraf on several occasions.

On September 28th the Supreme Court, in a six-three judgment, did however reject a clutch of petitions against General Musharraf's bid to be re-elected while still in his army chief's uniform. The government heaved a sigh of relief and promptly nominated the general to the presidency. But the reprieve was short-lived. Against the backdrop of popular disenchantment with the pro-Musharraf decision, the court decided on October 2nd to hear again constitutional objections to the chief election commissioner's acceptance of the general's nomination papers.

In theory, the court could now delay the presidential election until judgment day, whenever that may be; or, even worse from General Musharraf's point of view, prolong the hearings but allow the presidential election to go ahead. This would throw a deep shadow over his presidency until it gave its verdict. He has pledged to doff his uniform after being re-elected president. To be a civilian president with the Supreme Court's sword dangling over his head would be unnerving. “That would amount to blackmail,” says a presidential aide. “We won't accept it.” Should the court make such a decision while General Musharraf is still army chief, that presumably means martial law, however unpopular at home and abroad it may be.

On October 2nd General Musharraf promoted the head of the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), General Ashfaq Kayani, to be his deputy as army chief, and his designated successor in that job when he steps down as promised. He also promoted five other generals. This was supposed to signal his readiness to return the army to barracks and usher in a transition to greater democracy. But no one was fooled. The promotions are all well-deserved but there is no doubt that he has placed loyalists in all important positions before retiring as army chief.

Unfortunately, the idea that even as a civilian he will retain powerful influence over the army is exactly what provokes the opposition. So General Musharraf's fate hangs in the balance. The Supreme Court detests his overbearing manner but still has not mustered the courage to defy him and risk martial law. The opposition of right-wing mullahs and conservative politicians hate him for his pro-Western stance but cannot inspire a popular revolt against him. Meanwhile, the West worries about life both with and without General Musharraf. If he survives by dint of the gun, Pakistanis will blame the West for propping him up and veer towards the Islamists, which will undermine the “war against terror”. If he is ousted, a free-for-all-election might well produce a badly fractured electoral verdict, and do similar damage to the struggle against Islamist extremism.

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