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Wednesday, November 21, 2007

''Intelligence Brief: Musharraf's Rule Destabilizing Pakistan''

November 5.

In March 2007, after Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf dismissed the country's chief justice, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, PINR argued that "unless Washington has found a credible successor to Musharraf who will continue to support U.S. policies in the region, its interests call it to continue to work with Musharraf despite his shortcomings." [See: "Intelligence Brief: Despite Shortcomings, Musharraf Remains a Key U.S. Ally"]According to that report, "supporting pro-democracy factions against Musharraf…risks plunging Pakistan into chaos, which would provide a freer reign to anti-U.S. insurgents in the border regions," directly threatening U.S. interests in Afghanistan. With Musharraf's November 3 decision to declare emergency rule, the dynamic has changed. While Musharraf remains the only horse on which Washington can place its bets at this time, his decisions in the past year have made his rule increasingly destabilizing for Pakistan. On March 9, Musharraf's dismissal of Chief Justice Chaudhry began the current sequence of events. That action led to intense protests by the country's professional class, and on July 20 Musharraf was pressured to reinstate Chaudhry. Then, on September 10, Musharraf refused to allow the popular former prime minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, into the country, deporting him four hours after his plane landed in Islamabad. These actions alienated much of the country's professional and political class. At the same time, Musharraf's policies were alienating most of the country's religious elite and Islamist sympathizers. In July, Pakistani security forces stormed the Red Mosque, an Islamist stronghold, which led to a series of suicide attacks, including in areas outside of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and the North-West Frontier Province; both Islamabad and Rawalpindi suffered attacks. Then, in October, as former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto returned to the country, suicide bombers targeted her convoy in Karachi, killing more than 100 of her supporters. All of these incidents demonstrated that the ongoing insurgency in the border region was spreading deeper into the country, raising questions about Musharraf's claim that his leadership was preventing the country from descending further into chaos.With the November 3 decision to declare emergency rule, Musharraf has alienated the professional, political and Islamist forces in the country. His ability to remain in power comes from the support of the military, which itself appears to be divided.Throughout this entire process, he has remained a key U.S. ally in the region, since, as PINR explained on March 30, "maintaining stability in Pakistan -- even if that stability is retained through an authoritarian government -- is a critical interest of the United States as long as its operations in Afghanistan continue."The bottom line is that the United States has supported Musharraf because he has been the most stabilizing factor in the Pakistani equation. However, now that it is clear that Musharraf's rule itself has become a destabilizing force, Washington will likely seek alternatives to its policy of supporting Musharraf even though few, if any, exist.
The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of
enquiries@pinr.com. PINR reprints do not qualify under Fair-Use Statute Section 107 of the Copyright Act. All comments should be directed to comments@pinr.com
November 20,2007.
Faint Signs of Cooperation Appear Among Pakistan's Opposition Parties''
n November 19, Pakistan's Supreme Court -- now stacked with government appointed judges -- dismissed most of the legal challenges to President Pervez Musharraf's continued hold on power. The actions are close to providing Musharraf with the opportunity to step down as head of the army and instead serve as the country's president for another five-year term. This latest move by Musharraf is another attempt to maintain the reins of power despite rising domestic discontent with his regime. As PINR stated on November 5, "With the November 3 decision to declare emergency rule, Musharraf has alienated the professional, political and Islamist forces in the country. His ability to remain in power comes from the support of the military, which itself appears to be divided." This conclusion has not changed in the past two weeks, although there are faint signs that the political opposition is attempting to coordinate their strategies. [See:
"Intelligence Brief: Musharraf's Rule Destabilizing Pakistan"]The main sign was the November 15 announcement by the chairman of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz that former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto were prepared to begin a "joint struggle" to remove Musharraf from power. Sharif and Bhutto are two of Pakistan's most popular politicians -- and lead Pakistan's two largest opposition parties, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan People's Party -- yet they have a history of enmity that has kept them apart. As a result, up until recently Musharraf has been easily outmaneuvering a divided and weak democratic opposition. The latest announcement, however, demonstrates how Musharraf's authoritarian tendencies are possibly driving two formerly antagonistic partners together.Talks between Bhutto and Sharif are still at their beginning stages; it will, therefore, be important to monitor whether or not they are able to coordinate their strategies against Musharraf. For instance, after the November 15 announcement, there have been no new reports of cooperation between the two actors, which could reflect a number of factors, from the divided state of Pakistan's parties to outside influence by the United States.Nevertheless, if Musharraf were deposed from power and a more democratic government took control, it would not necessarily create political stability in Pakistan. Pakistan's party system has been historically corrupt and prone to factionalism; it repeatedly degenerates to the point of instability, and the military has then stepped in to preserve order. The military has played the role of the protector of unity in the country.Musharraf's eroding public support, however, could be causing a loss of public confidence in the military, which would be dangerous for Pakistan's future as it would lead to increased factionalism among the country's society, likely boosting support to Islamist political and militant groups.For the near term, Musharraf's continued rule depends on the support of the military. They have largely remained behind the embattled leader, but it is not clear how long this relationship will last if Musharraf's rule continues to cause domestic instability at home.
The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of
enquiries@pinr.com. PINR reprints do not qualify under Fair-Use Statute Section 107 of the Copyright Act. All comments should be directed to comments@pinr.com
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=724&language_id=1 .

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