Impeachment of President MusharrafBy amicus • Aug 13th, 2008 • Category: Politics • (3,789 views) • No Responses
Taliban commanders are taking over more of the country’s ungoverned north-west by the day.Tensions between South Asia’s nuclear-armed rivals are rising. After a suicide-bomb attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul last month—which India blamed on the ISI—its national security adviser, M.K. Narayanan, warned that India might have to “retaliate in kind”.
The economy is hell-bound. Inflation is running at 25% a year. The stockmarket in Karachi has lost 35% of its value since April. During blackouts, Pakistani businessmen trade tales of capital flight. Foreign-exchange reserves—once emblematic of economic recovery—now barely cover three months of imports.
The government, a coalition led by the Pakistan People Party (PPP), has been paralysed since its formation in February. It has no plan for the north-west and appears to have given little thought to arresting the economy’s decline.
The government does not even have a permanent finance minister. Ishaq Dar and half his colleagues were withdrawn from the cabinet in May by the PPP’s biggest coalition partner, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N).
It was protesting against the government’s failure to reinstate 60 judges, who were sacked by Pervez Musharraf last November lest they object to his (apparently illegal) re-election as president. Nawaz Sharifbelieves, if reinstated, these judges would force Mr Musharraf to quit.
For good reasons he has also demanded that parliament impeach the president. And he may have his way.
After showdown talks on August 6th and 7th Mr Sharif and the PPP’s leader, Asif Zardari, reached a provisional agreement to impeach the president and restore the judges.
Both moves would be popular. Having ruled Pakistan more or less outright for almost a decade, Mr Musharraf is blamed for many of its troubles.
According to a poll for the International Republican Institute, an American NGO, 83% of Pakistanis want him out and the judges reinstated.
Support for the PPP-led government, which came to power amid euphoria, has nose dived.
Its few efforts at policymaking—including a doomed effort to put the army-run ISI into civilian hands— have mostly been hapless.
Under Mr Zardari, the PPP seems rudderless and divided; a third of its elected members are said to be ready to rebel.
It appears Mr. Nawaz Sharif, like Mr Zardari, is reluctant to bring an end to an alliance for which he has no love.
The move of the ruling coalition impeach President Pervez Musharraf on charges of plunging the country into a political and economic crisis.
They also warned Musharraf, a former general who first came to power in a 1999 military coup, against any attempt to dismiss the government.
The move is likely to deepen political uncertainty in the which already faces a faltering economy and a threat from Islamist militants.
This situation has taken a toll on Pakistani markets, with the main share index at its weakest in almost two years and the rupee headed back towards all-time lows posted in early July.
Asif Ali Zardari said, “The coalition leaders believe that it has become imperative to move for impeachment,” Zardari told a news conference with his coalition partner, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
The response of the powerful army to the prospect of a humiliating exit for its former chief will be crucial. Army commanders met in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, close to Islamabad, on Thursday but a military official said it was a routine meeting.
While Mushrraf has become increasingly unpopular at home and lost parliamentary support after his allies suffered a defeat in February elections but he has resisted calls to stand down.
“The economic policies pursued by General Musharraf during the last 8 years have brought Pakistan to the brink of critical economic impasse,” a joint statement read by Zardari said.
“He has worked to undermine the transition to democracy.”
Some analysts say the jockeying for political power has distracted leaders from dealing with Pakistan’s economic problems and the effort to control Islamic militants, especially along the border with Afghanistan.
The United States and the Afghanistan government say the border areas are shelters for Taliban and al Qaeda fighters.
Musharraf has previously said he would resign rather than face impeachment.
Under the Pakistani constitution, a president can be ousted if an impeachment motion wins a two-thirds majority of the combined strength of the National Assembly and Senate.
Zardari was confident the motion would be passed with an overwhelming majority.“We have votes and we also have the courage,” he said
“The coalition reaffirmed the resolve of democracy and democratic forces will work jointly to make a transition to genuine democracy,” the head of Pakistan People’s Party Asif Ali Zardari said, reading a joint communique with his coalition partners.
Before pursuing impeachment proceedings, Pakistani lawmakers will demand Musharraf take a vote of confidence in the newly elected parliament, which he had vowed to do last year, Zardari said.
“The people of Pakistan gave a clear mandate in favor of democracy and democratic forces and voted for the change to oust Gen. Musharraf by defeating his … party,” Zardari added.
“In spite of his clear commitment that if his party was defeated in the election he would resign, he continues to cling to the office of the president.
On Thursday, Pakistani stocks had nudged up 0.3 percent, closing at 9,707.29 on turnover of 88.5 million shares, kept in check by anticipation of the formal announcement of the impeachment by the ruling parties.
The President is expected to fight off moves to oust him, saying he would take up the challenge and would not quit. “I will defeat those who try to push me to the wall,“ a defiant president told his supporters. “If they use their right to oust me, I have the right to defend myself.”
The twin issues of President Musharraf’s removal and the restoration of Supreme Court judges who were dismissed by the president last November during a brief period of emergency rule have over-shadowed the four-month-old coalition government.
The ruling coalition claims they have the two thirds majority required to remove the president.
Observers said the impeachment move could further destabilise the country, which is facing severe economic problem and rising Islamic insurgency.
He became hugely unpopular after he imposed a temporary emergency rule in the country in November 2007 and sacked the independent minded chief justice.
His allies were defeated in an election in February that resulted in a civilian coalition government led by the party of the late Benazir Bhutto, a two-time prime minister who was assassinated while campaigning last December.
Despite the loss of parliamentary support, Mr. Musharraf has resisted pressure to quit, and has insisted that he was willing to work with the new civilian government.
He has repeatedly said he would not use presidential powers to dismiss the parliament, but Pakistani political circles are rife with speculation that he is manouevring towards this scenario on grounds that the civilian government has proved inept.
Analysts said the impeachment move could increase political disarray the country and force the army to act, although the army leadership has so far kept itself out of the fray.
Political uncertainty has badly affected the economy with inflation reaching a record high. Investors have harboured doubts over whether the civilian coalition government has the ability to arrest the decline. Rising Islamic militancy which has gripped northern areas also threaten to tear apart the country.
The Causes for PPP going for Impeachment:
The PPP has been complaining of “interference” from the Presidency for some time, though not with the same intensity as the PMLN in Punjab.
The position may have changed a bit now because the PPP is also toying with the idea of having its own man in the presidency.
The level of unhappiness or dissatisfaction was revealed by Mr Zardari during an interview with Business Plus TV channel aired the same day.
He stated bluntly that the government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani was finding the president an obstacle in governance. When pushed to be more specific, he said the government would like to replace the Chief Commissioner and Governor of the State Bank but was hampered in this by the president. Apparently, the president is also dragging his feet on Mr Zardari’s nominee for the ambassadorship of the UAE, a position currently held by a friend of the president who also served in the caretaker administration.
It develops that the Governor of the State Bank, Ms Shamshad Akhtar, may have offended the government by making public the sum which his government had borrowed from the State Bank against good sense as it notched up the deficit and stoked inflation. Mr Zardari said the most recent Rs 50 billion had to be borrowed because his government had to pay off the oil companies whose dues had not been cleared by the Musharraf government. Because of non-payment, the companies were unable to supply oil for the production of electricity and power producers were unable to pay the suppliers. He seemed unhappy that this economic measure of last resort was shown to the public as an “excess”by the State Bank governor.
On Wednesday, Dr Pervez Tahir, chief economist of the Planning Commission from 2000 to 2006, brought out the supposed bias of the Governor in blinking the much bigger borrowings by governments before the PPP coalition took over in 2008. He wrote: “In November-December 2007 alone, the State Bank allowed the government to borrow Rs178bn. And now it is becoming restless because the new government in its first month borrowed Rs33bn. The consequences of the failure to act in July 2007 are being projected as problems that the democratic alliance does not have the competence to deal with. The plot continues to thicken.”
In any case, the precedents tell, presidential impeachment may be easier said than done. There is uncertainty in certain quarters about the impeachment in terms of numbers and procedure.
While many lawyers are agreed that impeachment can go ahead, some point to the difficulties of preparing a charge sheet according to the Constitution which pins the parliament down to one or all of the following three presidential culpabilities:
1) unfitness to hold the office due to incapacity, 2) guilt of violating the Constitution, 3) gross misconduct.
2) The partisans of this view hold that the President’s actions violating the Constitution in 1999 and 2007 through military rule were validated by the Supreme Court; therefore, the charge sheet will be seriously challenged.
The question of numbers has never been very clear. The PPP itself had earlier declared on a number of occasions that the coalition did not have the two-thirds vote required for impeachment in a joint parliamentary session.
The PMLQ and the MQM cannot be expected to support the move and their position will not change visibly in the interim.
Rumours have been afoot about the development of overt and covert “forward blocs” within the PMLQ, and that the PMLN has been quietly encouraging them. Therefore, if the PMLQ can be broken, and if the ANP and JUIF persuaded to go along, then the numbers may not be out of range. But these are two big ifs.
But there are other issues that are less clear. Does the PPP really want the quick exit of Mr Musharraf even if it leads to a stampede of the PMLQ into the arms of the PMLN and weakens the balance of power between the PMLN and PPP? How will the SC packed with Musharraf loyalists react to the impeachment when it knows that it will be on the hit list of the PMLN next?
Will the president sit back and let the PPP-PMLN grab the MNAs and Senators or will he throw the ISI and MI into the game and thwart them by wooing the ANP and JUIF?
Let us be clear about how the forces are stacked at the moment before we jump to any conclusions.
The PMLN and President Musharraf are true foes in the sense that they can’t share power under any circumstances.
The PPP is in the middle, it wants the president to go but it doesn’t want the PMLN to gain advantage out of it, and thus far it has been trying to survive by balancing one off against the other.
The ANP has its hands full in combating terrorism in its province and needs the army and ISI on its right side. The JUIF is looking over its shoulder to see which way the wind blows.
So we have the President, Army, ISI, MQM and PMLQ on one side, fully united, and the PMLN, the PPP, the lawyers’ movement and most Pakistanis on the other, with one critical qualification — the lawyers’ movement is fatigued and lacks the potency of last year, while “the people” are not ready to risk their necks for their anti-Musharraf beliefs. , ANP and JUIF, seemingly in the middle, but their short term interests have tilted in favour of the than the latter. The Supreme Court too, may take the que from the anti-Musharraf, highly charged public opinion.
Since the President Musharraf canceled his China visit, it means he takes this threat seriously and is going to quickly rally his forces.A beleaguered President Pervez Musharraf held consultations with his political loyalists and constitutional and legal aides on Wednesday in what appeared to be an effort to prepare himself to fight off the ruling coalition in its move to impeach him.
“I will defeat those who try to push me to the wall,” sources quoted the president as saying. “If they use their right to try to oust me I have the right to defend myself.
“I will go down fighting but will not give in to those who are doing so to create more political divisions,” he said.
He said he was an elected president and would continue to serve the nation as long as the Constitution allowed him.
Pakistan Muslim League-Q president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and party leader Hamid Nasir Chattha were the first to meet him. They assured him of their party’s unwavering support “through thick and thin”.
Later, the governors of Punjab and Sindh met the president to discuss the political situation.
Sindh Governor Dr Ishratul Ibad is said to have renewed support for President Musharraf on behalf of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement.
Reports of a meeting of constitutional and legal advisers with the president were not confirmed by the presidential spokesman Rashid Qureshi.
The sources said that the PML-Q leaders had asked the president to defend himself in person in parliament. They also convinced him not to call off his visit to China which was a tested strategic friend of Pakistan.
Private TV channels also reported a meeting between Chief of the Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and the president but it was denied by Inter-Services Public Relations director general Maj-Gen Athar Abbas.
Chaudhry Shujaat told reporters after his two and half an hour meeting at the president’s camp office that the impeachment bogie was aimed at diverting the attention of the people from real issues.
Ways of countering the impeachment move were discussed at the meeting and the PML-Q assured the president that its legislators would defend him in parliament and outside it.
Chaudhry Pervaiz said: “Gen (retd) Musharraf is an elected president who has the credit of holding free and fair elections. He does not deserve this treatment and we will stand by him in case of any effort to oust him.”
He warned against any move which could sabotage political harmony and create instability at this critical juncture in national history.
Options:
So what are Musharraf’s options to avoid a possible impeachment if he does not quit?
It will require a wide split in the ranks of PPP and PML-N — by no means an impossible task ordinarily but quite unlikely given their extraordinary need to do business together, for now.
Najam Sethi, editor of the pro-West Daily Times, who has previously supported Musharraf’s liberal policies,
suggests a way out.
“Ideally, President Musharraf might be advised to voluntarily quit, redeem some honour and allow the fledgling democracy to settle down and grow. But if he is reluctant to call it a day voluntarily, the choice will be between banding together and getting rid of him or letting him stay as a lame duck president.”
To arrive at any meaningful conclusion on, if and how, Musharraf can be impeached, if he decides to ignore calls for resignation, it is important for PPP and PML-N to converge.
As declared by the coalition partners, PPP-PMLN-ANP-JUIF, the Game Plan has began to unfold, with the passage of a Resolution requiring the President Musharraf to seek a vote of confidence from the National Assembly, as per his commitment before the Supreme Court (which otherwise the PMLN does not consider legitimate).
The strategy seems to be to create Moral Pressure via Provincial Assemblies calling upon him to seek that vote of confidence, mobilize public opinion, create Media Hype and brow be President to make him virtually reel before the socalled “Great Public Demand” and give in or else…….
It may not be out of place to point out Assembly Resolution may have moral value but no Constitutional binding on President Musharraf. This appears to be the case, since undertaking given before the Supreme Court on his behalf, may make why not approach the Supreme Court to seek a direction to Musharraf to honor his commitment made on his before the Apex Court. Albeit PMLN, atleast would not share such a course.
Hence Impeachment, at the cost and peril of the Primary and Pivotal Goal of getting the Honorable CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry and other 59 (or shall we substract the 8 Honorable ousted Justices, having been reappointed by the PPP-PMLN Coalition Government, because as of today those appointments holds the ground on Legal Plane), the Lawyers and Civil Socitieties’ Long Struggle. Now Restoration of Judges shall be preceded by Impeachment and Removal of President Musharraf. No disagreement with that, the caveat is why this took so long to divine the Coalition Government of PPP and PMLN, moreso the later.
If it had, the Nation would have been spared the torture and agony since almost five months, lack or absence of governance, down heel slide of the National Economy, spiraling cost of living, high inflation, decline of Law and Order and the stark reality of Threats to National Security owing to the Regional Geo Political environment and serious attempts by enemies of Pakistan, within and without.
That being said, one would desire, impeachment, so be it. A word of caution is “Let’s do it right by our Constitution and Laws”.
To facilitate precisely that let our Lagislators, comprehend the “Doctrine of Impeachment of Head of the State, Government or even Public Servants” elsewhere in the Civilised World. Here are some insights for a starter.
The relevant Constututionl provisions for Impeachment of President.
PART III
The Federation of Pakistan
Chapter 1. THE PRESIDENT
47. Removal [22][or impeachment] of President.
[22A](1) Notwithstanding anything contained in the Constitution, the President may, in accordance with the provisions of this Article, be removed from office on the ground of physical or mental incapacity or impeached on a charge of violating the Constitution or gross misconduct.
(2) Not less than one-half of the total membership of either House may give to the Speaker of the National Assembly or, as the case may be, the Chairman written notice of its intention to move a resolution for the removal of, or, as the case may be, to impeach, the President; and such notice shall set out the particulars of his incapacity or of the charge against him.]
(3) If a notice under clause (2) is received by the Chairman, he shall transmit it forthwith to the Speaker.
(4) The Speaker shall, within three days of the receipt of a notice under clause (2) or clause (3), cause a copy of the notice to be transmitted to the President.
(5) The Speaker shall summon the two Houses to meet in a joint sitting not earlier than seven days and not later than fourteen days after the receipt of the notice by him.
(6) The joint sitting may investigate or cause to be investigated the ground or the charge upon which the notice is founded.
(7) The President shall have the right to appear and be represented during the investigation, if any, and before the joint sitting.
(8) If, after consideration of the result of the investigation, if any, a resolution is passed at the joint sitting by the votes of not less than two-thirds of the total membership of [23][Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament)] declaring that the President is unfit to hold the office due to incapacity or is guilty of violating the Constitution or of gross misconduct, the President shall cease to hold office immediately on the passing of the resolution. (1)
In the absence of Bhutto, who remained its great binding force for nearly three decades, the PPP under Zardari — who has remained a source of discontent within the party rank and file thanks to his controversial role in her two governments — will be vulnerable to the devious games of the establishment and intelligence agencies.
In other words, staying in power will be the glue, which keeps the PPP together and provide Zardari the necessary space to earn his spurs as a genuine leader. But this could mean making uncomfortable compromises. PPP and Musharraf’s aides are already in talks over the future dispensation.
The PPP appears not too keen on the restoration of the deposed judges but PML-N can ill-afford to part with their hardened stand. Even if the PPP reluctantly agrees to find a middle ground on the issue, Sharif is not ready to let bygones be bygones with Musharraf.To impeach or not to impeach
Both the parties want Musharraf out, but while they would rather the beleaguered leader resign of his own volition, PPP has given indications that it could still live with him if they get their pound of flesh. On the contrary, Sharif is gunning for an impeachment if Musharraf tries to push his luck.
So far, Musharraf is refusing to buckle down. This may change however, if Zardari and Sharif reach the same conclusion to keep their political stock intact. Debate on possible impeachment may gain currency in the days to come.
Zardari has called for Musharraf to quit.
Senator John Kerry, the last Bush rival for the White House, and one of few US lawmakers, who traveled to Pakistan as poll observers, was constrained to point to a clause for impeachment in the Pakistani constitution to offset a query at a news conference in Islamabad the other day.
Kerry was asked if he was working to advance longstanding US policy of supporting Musharraf in power when he suggested Musharraf and moderate victors of the February 18 elections had a great opportunity to work together to strengthen democracy.
Joseph Biden, chairman of the senate foreign relations committee and one of the poll observers, at least, signaled a change in outlook.
“This is an opportunity for us to move from a policy that has been focused on a personality to one based on an entire people,” Biden said.
Regardless of what eventually happens to Musharraf, the gnawing reality is that politically, he may have reached a dead-end.
The relevant Constututionl provisions for Impeachment of President.PART III
The Federation of Pakistan
Chapter 1. THE PRESIDENT
47. Removal [22][or impeachment] of President.
[22A](1) Notwithstanding anything contained in the Constitution, the President may, in accordance with the provisions of this Article, be removed from office on the ground of physical or mental incapacity or impeached on a charge of violating the Constitution or gross misconduct.
(2) Not less than one-half of the total membership of either House may give to the Speaker of the National Assembly or, as the case may be, the Chairman written notice of its intention to move a resolution for the removal of, or, as the case may be, to impeach, the President; and such notice shall set out the particulars of his incapacity or of the charge against him.]
(3) If a notice under clause (2) is received by the Chairman, he shall transmit it forthwith to the Speaker.
(4) The Speaker shall, within three days of the receipt of a notice under clause (2) or clause (3), cause a copy of the notice to be transmitted to the President.
(5) The Speaker shall summon the two Houses to meet in a joint sitting not earlier than seven days and not later than fourteen days after the receipt of the notice by him.
(6) The joint sitting may investigate or cause to be investigated the ground or the charge upon which the notice is founded.
(7) The President shall have the right to appear and be represented during the investigation, if any, and before the joint sitting.
(8) If, after consideration of the result of the investigation, if any, a resolution is passed at the joint sitting by the votes of not less than two-thirds of the total membership of [23][Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament)] declaring that the President is unfit to hold the office due to incapacity or is guilty of violating the Constitution or of gross misconduct, the President shall cease to hold office immediately on the passing of the resolution.
In order to comprehend what PPP-PMLN coalition is getting into by taking the Impeachment Route it may be useful to take a look at what Impeachment is in the contemporary world. Here are some relevant material.
Last 5 posts by amicus
Taliban commanders are taking over more of the country’s ungoverned north-west by the day.Tensions between South Asia’s nuclear-armed rivals are rising. After a suicide-bomb attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul last month—which India blamed on the ISI—its national security adviser, M.K. Narayanan, warned that India might have to “retaliate in kind”.
The economy is hell-bound. Inflation is running at 25% a year. The stockmarket in Karachi has lost 35% of its value since April. During blackouts, Pakistani businessmen trade tales of capital flight. Foreign-exchange reserves—once emblematic of economic recovery—now barely cover three months of imports.
The government, a coalition led by the Pakistan People Party (PPP), has been paralysed since its formation in February. It has no plan for the north-west and appears to have given little thought to arresting the economy’s decline.
The government does not even have a permanent finance minister. Ishaq Dar and half his colleagues were withdrawn from the cabinet in May by the PPP’s biggest coalition partner, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N).
It was protesting against the government’s failure to reinstate 60 judges, who were sacked by Pervez Musharraf last November lest they object to his (apparently illegal) re-election as president. Nawaz Sharifbelieves, if reinstated, these judges would force Mr Musharraf to quit.
For good reasons he has also demanded that parliament impeach the president. And he may have his way.
After showdown talks on August 6th and 7th Mr Sharif and the PPP’s leader, Asif Zardari, reached a provisional agreement to impeach the president and restore the judges.
Both moves would be popular. Having ruled Pakistan more or less outright for almost a decade, Mr Musharraf is blamed for many of its troubles.
According to a poll for the International Republican Institute, an American NGO, 83% of Pakistanis want him out and the judges reinstated.
Support for the PPP-led government, which came to power amid euphoria, has nose dived.
Its few efforts at policymaking—including a doomed effort to put the army-run ISI into civilian hands— have mostly been hapless.
Under Mr Zardari, the PPP seems rudderless and divided; a third of its elected members are said to be ready to rebel.
It appears Mr. Nawaz Sharif, like Mr Zardari, is reluctant to bring an end to an alliance for which he has no love.
The move of the ruling coalition impeach President Pervez Musharraf on charges of plunging the country into a political and economic crisis.
They also warned Musharraf, a former general who first came to power in a 1999 military coup, against any attempt to dismiss the government.
The move is likely to deepen political uncertainty in the which already faces a faltering economy and a threat from Islamist militants.
This situation has taken a toll on Pakistani markets, with the main share index at its weakest in almost two years and the rupee headed back towards all-time lows posted in early July.
Asif Ali Zardari said, “The coalition leaders believe that it has become imperative to move for impeachment,” Zardari told a news conference with his coalition partner, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
The response of the powerful army to the prospect of a humiliating exit for its former chief will be crucial. Army commanders met in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, close to Islamabad, on Thursday but a military official said it was a routine meeting.
While Mushrraf has become increasingly unpopular at home and lost parliamentary support after his allies suffered a defeat in February elections but he has resisted calls to stand down.
“The economic policies pursued by General Musharraf during the last 8 years have brought Pakistan to the brink of critical economic impasse,” a joint statement read by Zardari said.
“He has worked to undermine the transition to democracy.”
Some analysts say the jockeying for political power has distracted leaders from dealing with Pakistan’s economic problems and the effort to control Islamic militants, especially along the border with Afghanistan.
The United States and the Afghanistan government say the border areas are shelters for Taliban and al Qaeda fighters.
Musharraf has previously said he would resign rather than face impeachment.
Under the Pakistani constitution, a president can be ousted if an impeachment motion wins a two-thirds majority of the combined strength of the National Assembly and Senate.
Zardari was confident the motion would be passed with an overwhelming majority.“We have votes and we also have the courage,” he said
“The coalition reaffirmed the resolve of democracy and democratic forces will work jointly to make a transition to genuine democracy,” the head of Pakistan People’s Party Asif Ali Zardari said, reading a joint communique with his coalition partners.
Before pursuing impeachment proceedings, Pakistani lawmakers will demand Musharraf take a vote of confidence in the newly elected parliament, which he had vowed to do last year, Zardari said.
“The people of Pakistan gave a clear mandate in favor of democracy and democratic forces and voted for the change to oust Gen. Musharraf by defeating his … party,” Zardari added.
“In spite of his clear commitment that if his party was defeated in the election he would resign, he continues to cling to the office of the president.
On Thursday, Pakistani stocks had nudged up 0.3 percent, closing at 9,707.29 on turnover of 88.5 million shares, kept in check by anticipation of the formal announcement of the impeachment by the ruling parties.
The President is expected to fight off moves to oust him, saying he would take up the challenge and would not quit. “I will defeat those who try to push me to the wall,“ a defiant president told his supporters. “If they use their right to oust me, I have the right to defend myself.”
The twin issues of President Musharraf’s removal and the restoration of Supreme Court judges who were dismissed by the president last November during a brief period of emergency rule have over-shadowed the four-month-old coalition government.
The ruling coalition claims they have the two thirds majority required to remove the president.
Observers said the impeachment move could further destabilise the country, which is facing severe economic problem and rising Islamic insurgency.
He became hugely unpopular after he imposed a temporary emergency rule in the country in November 2007 and sacked the independent minded chief justice.
His allies were defeated in an election in February that resulted in a civilian coalition government led by the party of the late Benazir Bhutto, a two-time prime minister who was assassinated while campaigning last December.
Despite the loss of parliamentary support, Mr. Musharraf has resisted pressure to quit, and has insisted that he was willing to work with the new civilian government.
He has repeatedly said he would not use presidential powers to dismiss the parliament, but Pakistani political circles are rife with speculation that he is manouevring towards this scenario on grounds that the civilian government has proved inept.
Analysts said the impeachment move could increase political disarray the country and force the army to act, although the army leadership has so far kept itself out of the fray.
Political uncertainty has badly affected the economy with inflation reaching a record high. Investors have harboured doubts over whether the civilian coalition government has the ability to arrest the decline. Rising Islamic militancy which has gripped northern areas also threaten to tear apart the country.
The Causes for PPP going for Impeachment:
The PPP has been complaining of “interference” from the Presidency for some time, though not with the same intensity as the PMLN in Punjab.
The position may have changed a bit now because the PPP is also toying with the idea of having its own man in the presidency.
The level of unhappiness or dissatisfaction was revealed by Mr Zardari during an interview with Business Plus TV channel aired the same day.
He stated bluntly that the government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani was finding the president an obstacle in governance. When pushed to be more specific, he said the government would like to replace the Chief Commissioner and Governor of the State Bank but was hampered in this by the president. Apparently, the president is also dragging his feet on Mr Zardari’s nominee for the ambassadorship of the UAE, a position currently held by a friend of the president who also served in the caretaker administration.
It develops that the Governor of the State Bank, Ms Shamshad Akhtar, may have offended the government by making public the sum which his government had borrowed from the State Bank against good sense as it notched up the deficit and stoked inflation. Mr Zardari said the most recent Rs 50 billion had to be borrowed because his government had to pay off the oil companies whose dues had not been cleared by the Musharraf government. Because of non-payment, the companies were unable to supply oil for the production of electricity and power producers were unable to pay the suppliers. He seemed unhappy that this economic measure of last resort was shown to the public as an “excess”by the State Bank governor.
On Wednesday, Dr Pervez Tahir, chief economist of the Planning Commission from 2000 to 2006, brought out the supposed bias of the Governor in blinking the much bigger borrowings by governments before the PPP coalition took over in 2008. He wrote: “In November-December 2007 alone, the State Bank allowed the government to borrow Rs178bn. And now it is becoming restless because the new government in its first month borrowed Rs33bn. The consequences of the failure to act in July 2007 are being projected as problems that the democratic alliance does not have the competence to deal with. The plot continues to thicken.”
In any case, the precedents tell, presidential impeachment may be easier said than done. There is uncertainty in certain quarters about the impeachment in terms of numbers and procedure.
While many lawyers are agreed that impeachment can go ahead, some point to the difficulties of preparing a charge sheet according to the Constitution which pins the parliament down to one or all of the following three presidential culpabilities:
1) unfitness to hold the office due to incapacity, 2) guilt of violating the Constitution, 3) gross misconduct.
2) The partisans of this view hold that the President’s actions violating the Constitution in 1999 and 2007 through military rule were validated by the Supreme Court; therefore, the charge sheet will be seriously challenged.
The question of numbers has never been very clear. The PPP itself had earlier declared on a number of occasions that the coalition did not have the two-thirds vote required for impeachment in a joint parliamentary session.
The PMLQ and the MQM cannot be expected to support the move and their position will not change visibly in the interim.
Rumours have been afoot about the development of overt and covert “forward blocs” within the PMLQ, and that the PMLN has been quietly encouraging them. Therefore, if the PMLQ can be broken, and if the ANP and JUIF persuaded to go along, then the numbers may not be out of range. But these are two big ifs.
But there are other issues that are less clear. Does the PPP really want the quick exit of Mr Musharraf even if it leads to a stampede of the PMLQ into the arms of the PMLN and weakens the balance of power between the PMLN and PPP? How will the SC packed with Musharraf loyalists react to the impeachment when it knows that it will be on the hit list of the PMLN next?
Will the president sit back and let the PPP-PMLN grab the MNAs and Senators or will he throw the ISI and MI into the game and thwart them by wooing the ANP and JUIF?
Let us be clear about how the forces are stacked at the moment before we jump to any conclusions.
The PMLN and President Musharraf are true foes in the sense that they can’t share power under any circumstances.
The PPP is in the middle, it wants the president to go but it doesn’t want the PMLN to gain advantage out of it, and thus far it has been trying to survive by balancing one off against the other.
The ANP has its hands full in combating terrorism in its province and needs the army and ISI on its right side. The JUIF is looking over its shoulder to see which way the wind blows.
So we have the President, Army, ISI, MQM and PMLQ on one side, fully united, and the PMLN, the PPP, the lawyers’ movement and most Pakistanis on the other, with one critical qualification — the lawyers’ movement is fatigued and lacks the potency of last year, while “the people” are not ready to risk their necks for their anti-Musharraf beliefs. , ANP and JUIF, seemingly in the middle, but their short term interests have tilted in favour of the than the latter. The Supreme Court too, may take the que from the anti-Musharraf, highly charged public opinion.
Since the President Musharraf canceled his China visit, it means he takes this threat seriously and is going to quickly rally his forces.A beleaguered President Pervez Musharraf held consultations with his political loyalists and constitutional and legal aides on Wednesday in what appeared to be an effort to prepare himself to fight off the ruling coalition in its move to impeach him.
“I will defeat those who try to push me to the wall,” sources quoted the president as saying. “If they use their right to try to oust me I have the right to defend myself.
“I will go down fighting but will not give in to those who are doing so to create more political divisions,” he said.
He said he was an elected president and would continue to serve the nation as long as the Constitution allowed him.
Pakistan Muslim League-Q president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and party leader Hamid Nasir Chattha were the first to meet him. They assured him of their party’s unwavering support “through thick and thin”.
Later, the governors of Punjab and Sindh met the president to discuss the political situation.
Sindh Governor Dr Ishratul Ibad is said to have renewed support for President Musharraf on behalf of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement.
Reports of a meeting of constitutional and legal advisers with the president were not confirmed by the presidential spokesman Rashid Qureshi.
The sources said that the PML-Q leaders had asked the president to defend himself in person in parliament. They also convinced him not to call off his visit to China which was a tested strategic friend of Pakistan.
Private TV channels also reported a meeting between Chief of the Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and the president but it was denied by Inter-Services Public Relations director general Maj-Gen Athar Abbas.
Chaudhry Shujaat told reporters after his two and half an hour meeting at the president’s camp office that the impeachment bogie was aimed at diverting the attention of the people from real issues.
Ways of countering the impeachment move were discussed at the meeting and the PML-Q assured the president that its legislators would defend him in parliament and outside it.
Chaudhry Pervaiz said: “Gen (retd) Musharraf is an elected president who has the credit of holding free and fair elections. He does not deserve this treatment and we will stand by him in case of any effort to oust him.”
He warned against any move which could sabotage political harmony and create instability at this critical juncture in national history.
Options:
So what are Musharraf’s options to avoid a possible impeachment if he does not quit?
It will require a wide split in the ranks of PPP and PML-N — by no means an impossible task ordinarily but quite unlikely given their extraordinary need to do business together, for now.
Najam Sethi, editor of the pro-West Daily Times, who has previously supported Musharraf’s liberal policies,
suggests a way out.
“Ideally, President Musharraf might be advised to voluntarily quit, redeem some honour and allow the fledgling democracy to settle down and grow. But if he is reluctant to call it a day voluntarily, the choice will be between banding together and getting rid of him or letting him stay as a lame duck president.”
To arrive at any meaningful conclusion on, if and how, Musharraf can be impeached, if he decides to ignore calls for resignation, it is important for PPP and PML-N to converge.
As declared by the coalition partners, PPP-PMLN-ANP-JUIF, the Game Plan has began to unfold, with the passage of a Resolution requiring the President Musharraf to seek a vote of confidence from the National Assembly, as per his commitment before the Supreme Court (which otherwise the PMLN does not consider legitimate).
The strategy seems to be to create Moral Pressure via Provincial Assemblies calling upon him to seek that vote of confidence, mobilize public opinion, create Media Hype and brow be President to make him virtually reel before the socalled “Great Public Demand” and give in or else…….
It may not be out of place to point out Assembly Resolution may have moral value but no Constitutional binding on President Musharraf. This appears to be the case, since undertaking given before the Supreme Court on his behalf, may make why not approach the Supreme Court to seek a direction to Musharraf to honor his commitment made on his before the Apex Court. Albeit PMLN, atleast would not share such a course.
Hence Impeachment, at the cost and peril of the Primary and Pivotal Goal of getting the Honorable CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry and other 59 (or shall we substract the 8 Honorable ousted Justices, having been reappointed by the PPP-PMLN Coalition Government, because as of today those appointments holds the ground on Legal Plane), the Lawyers and Civil Socitieties’ Long Struggle. Now Restoration of Judges shall be preceded by Impeachment and Removal of President Musharraf. No disagreement with that, the caveat is why this took so long to divine the Coalition Government of PPP and PMLN, moreso the later.
If it had, the Nation would have been spared the torture and agony since almost five months, lack or absence of governance, down heel slide of the National Economy, spiraling cost of living, high inflation, decline of Law and Order and the stark reality of Threats to National Security owing to the Regional Geo Political environment and serious attempts by enemies of Pakistan, within and without.
That being said, one would desire, impeachment, so be it. A word of caution is “Let’s do it right by our Constitution and Laws”.
To facilitate precisely that let our Lagislators, comprehend the “Doctrine of Impeachment of Head of the State, Government or even Public Servants” elsewhere in the Civilised World. Here are some insights for a starter.
The relevant Constututionl provisions for Impeachment of President.
PART III
The Federation of Pakistan
Chapter 1. THE PRESIDENT
47. Removal [22][or impeachment] of President.
[22A](1) Notwithstanding anything contained in the Constitution, the President may, in accordance with the provisions of this Article, be removed from office on the ground of physical or mental incapacity or impeached on a charge of violating the Constitution or gross misconduct.
(2) Not less than one-half of the total membership of either House may give to the Speaker of the National Assembly or, as the case may be, the Chairman written notice of its intention to move a resolution for the removal of, or, as the case may be, to impeach, the President; and such notice shall set out the particulars of his incapacity or of the charge against him.]
(3) If a notice under clause (2) is received by the Chairman, he shall transmit it forthwith to the Speaker.
(4) The Speaker shall, within three days of the receipt of a notice under clause (2) or clause (3), cause a copy of the notice to be transmitted to the President.
(5) The Speaker shall summon the two Houses to meet in a joint sitting not earlier than seven days and not later than fourteen days after the receipt of the notice by him.
(6) The joint sitting may investigate or cause to be investigated the ground or the charge upon which the notice is founded.
(7) The President shall have the right to appear and be represented during the investigation, if any, and before the joint sitting.
(8) If, after consideration of the result of the investigation, if any, a resolution is passed at the joint sitting by the votes of not less than two-thirds of the total membership of [23][Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament)] declaring that the President is unfit to hold the office due to incapacity or is guilty of violating the Constitution or of gross misconduct, the President shall cease to hold office immediately on the passing of the resolution. (1)
In the absence of Bhutto, who remained its great binding force for nearly three decades, the PPP under Zardari — who has remained a source of discontent within the party rank and file thanks to his controversial role in her two governments — will be vulnerable to the devious games of the establishment and intelligence agencies.
In other words, staying in power will be the glue, which keeps the PPP together and provide Zardari the necessary space to earn his spurs as a genuine leader. But this could mean making uncomfortable compromises. PPP and Musharraf’s aides are already in talks over the future dispensation.
The PPP appears not too keen on the restoration of the deposed judges but PML-N can ill-afford to part with their hardened stand. Even if the PPP reluctantly agrees to find a middle ground on the issue, Sharif is not ready to let bygones be bygones with Musharraf.To impeach or not to impeach
Both the parties want Musharraf out, but while they would rather the beleaguered leader resign of his own volition, PPP has given indications that it could still live with him if they get their pound of flesh. On the contrary, Sharif is gunning for an impeachment if Musharraf tries to push his luck.
So far, Musharraf is refusing to buckle down. This may change however, if Zardari and Sharif reach the same conclusion to keep their political stock intact. Debate on possible impeachment may gain currency in the days to come.
Zardari has called for Musharraf to quit.
Senator John Kerry, the last Bush rival for the White House, and one of few US lawmakers, who traveled to Pakistan as poll observers, was constrained to point to a clause for impeachment in the Pakistani constitution to offset a query at a news conference in Islamabad the other day.
Kerry was asked if he was working to advance longstanding US policy of supporting Musharraf in power when he suggested Musharraf and moderate victors of the February 18 elections had a great opportunity to work together to strengthen democracy.
Joseph Biden, chairman of the senate foreign relations committee and one of the poll observers, at least, signaled a change in outlook.
“This is an opportunity for us to move from a policy that has been focused on a personality to one based on an entire people,” Biden said.
Regardless of what eventually happens to Musharraf, the gnawing reality is that politically, he may have reached a dead-end.
The relevant Constututionl provisions for Impeachment of President.PART III
The Federation of Pakistan
Chapter 1. THE PRESIDENT
47. Removal [22][or impeachment] of President.
[22A](1) Notwithstanding anything contained in the Constitution, the President may, in accordance with the provisions of this Article, be removed from office on the ground of physical or mental incapacity or impeached on a charge of violating the Constitution or gross misconduct.
(2) Not less than one-half of the total membership of either House may give to the Speaker of the National Assembly or, as the case may be, the Chairman written notice of its intention to move a resolution for the removal of, or, as the case may be, to impeach, the President; and such notice shall set out the particulars of his incapacity or of the charge against him.]
(3) If a notice under clause (2) is received by the Chairman, he shall transmit it forthwith to the Speaker.
(4) The Speaker shall, within three days of the receipt of a notice under clause (2) or clause (3), cause a copy of the notice to be transmitted to the President.
(5) The Speaker shall summon the two Houses to meet in a joint sitting not earlier than seven days and not later than fourteen days after the receipt of the notice by him.
(6) The joint sitting may investigate or cause to be investigated the ground or the charge upon which the notice is founded.
(7) The President shall have the right to appear and be represented during the investigation, if any, and before the joint sitting.
(8) If, after consideration of the result of the investigation, if any, a resolution is passed at the joint sitting by the votes of not less than two-thirds of the total membership of [23][Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament)] declaring that the President is unfit to hold the office due to incapacity or is guilty of violating the Constitution or of gross misconduct, the President shall cease to hold office immediately on the passing of the resolution.
In order to comprehend what PPP-PMLN coalition is getting into by taking the Impeachment Route it may be useful to take a look at what Impeachment is in the contemporary world. Here are some relevant material.
Last 5 posts by amicus
100 Days - July 11th, 2008
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