A people in turmoil as politicians bicker
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Vocal … Pakistan Muslim League supporters call for the President, Pervez Musharraf, to go, but things may not necessarily improve if he does, say analysts.Photo: Reuteres
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August 16, 2008
There's a focus on power plays instead of the economic nightmare, writes Matt Wade.
INSIDE Pakistan's vast white-concrete National Assembly building there is a tatty cafeteria where MPs, party apparatchiks and journalists gather to smoke, drink tea and talk politics.
The patrons have had a juicy power struggle to mull over since the governing coalition said a week ago it would impeach the President, Pervez Musharraf. Would he quit or stand and fight?
Musharraf's future has been an abiding obsession for Pakistan's political elite. But three kilometres from the Parliament building in a grim Islamabad slum called "One Hundred Quarters" the conversations are different.
Musharraf's fate hardly rates a mention in the small makeshift hut where Cornelius Gull lives with 12 members of his extended family. They are busy trying to work out how they will survive the deepening economic crisis.
The inflation rate surged to 24.3 per cent last month, compared with 6.3 per cent a year ago. Poor families like Gull's have been hit hard by the fast-rising cost of food and fuel. Food-price inflation is at nearly 34 per cent.
"It is more important for these politicians to tackle the problem of price hikes than this thing with the President," says Gull, who is 31 and unemployed. The family no longer buys meat and has no savings for medicines. "We eat only beans and a few vegetables," he said.
Poor families across the country are being squeezed.
Shujat Ali, who works as a security guard at a government building in central Islamabad, says rising prices are causing "misery" for his family.
"I don't mind if it is Musharraf or any other politician, I just want someone to give us some solace from these high prices," says the father of five.
Even before this year's upwards price spiral, one in every four Pakistanis went to bed hungry at night. Nearly a third of all children are malnourished and lack safe water and household sanitation. One in 10 children did not survive their fifth birthday, with most deaths due to diarrhoea, pneumonia or vaccine-preventable diseases, the United Nations Children's Fund says.
The crippling bout of inflation is likely to make things worse.
Dr Zafar Mueen Nasir, an economist who advises the Pakistan Ministry of Labour, says the price surge is taking a dire toll. "We see a lot of distress in families and the rate of suicides have increased significantly," he says. "Some independent research is showing that poverty indicators like infant and maternal mortality rates are on the increase."
Pakistan's fragile coalition Government, elected five months ago, blames record oil prices and a global food shortage for its inflation problems. It hopes to reduce price growth to 12 per cent this financial year but many economists doubt it can be achieved. Prices are not the only challenge. Unemployment is rising, the sharemarket is in free-fall and there are chronic power shortages.
In the late 1990s Pakistan had a power-generation surplus but has lapsed into severe deficit after a decade of underinvestment. The economy is hampered by a regime of load-shedding (engineered outages). In the big cities of Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad power is off for six hours a day. In some rural areas it is off for up to 18 hours a day.
"We did not adequately invest in power generation and this is now stunting our growth," Nasir says. "Our industrial sector and our exports are being affected by this power shortage."
Asif Mehmood, who runs a small office-supplies store in Islamabad, says constant power cuts and rampant inflation have played havoc with his business.
"This load-shedding is causing so many problems for us," he said. "Along with the price hikes it has seriously affected my business." Mehmood estimates his income has been halved over the past year. "I have never thought of moving abroad, but in these circumstances I have started to plan for that. All we can do is hope things improve."
The debilitating political stand-off has coincided with a growing Taliban-led insurgency, especially in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. More than 100,000 people are reported to have fled heavy fighting between government troops and Taliban militants near the border in the past fortnight.
Suicide bombers haunt Pakistan's cities. Independence Day celebrations on Thursday were soured when a terrorist blew himself up at a busy marketplace in Lahore on Wednesday night, killing nine and injuring about 50.
Resolute political will and disciplined policies are needed to confront Pakistan's economic and security crises. Instead, the Government has been embroiled in power plays.
Sheikh Waqas Akram, an MP from Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid), says the threat to impeach Musharraf created unnecessary instability and confusion. "Do we really need this right now?" he said.
However the Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, said he was determined to "usher in an era where there was no dictatorship but democracy".
Pakistan's nuclear-armed rival India is worried about Pakistan's governance after Musharraf. India's national security adviser, M K Narayanan, angered the Pakistan Government this week when he said Musharraf's departure would leave a "big vacuum" that could leave "radical extremist outfits with freedom to do what they like".
Many of the economic problems facing the Government were left by its predecessor. There were hopes that the main partners in the governing coalition, the Pakistan People's Party, which represents workers, and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), traditionally closer to business, would come up with strategies to revive the economy that had widespread support.
But since the coalition came to power in February, there has been little evidence of a coherent policy response to the challenges. The budget deficit is likely to balloon above 7 per cent of GDP, adding to the economic instability.
Investors have been voting with their feet: Karachi's sharemarket has shed 35 per cent of its value since April. The rupee has lost 25 per cent of its value against the US dollar this year - a clear sign that foreign investors are baling out.
The exchange-rate slump will add to inflationary pressure by making imports more costly.
Musharraf's removal will not necessarily allow the Government to devote its full attention to economic and security problems.
The main parties in the governing coalition are traditional rivals. They have not functioned well in coalition so far. There is a danger Musharraf's departure will give way to more political uncertainty as the two parties jostle for advantage.
Printer friendly version
Normal font
Large font
Vocal … Pakistan Muslim League supporters call for the President, Pervez Musharraf, to go, but things may not necessarily improve if he does, say analysts.Photo: Reuteres
Latest related coverage
Aides in talks to find an exit plan for Musharraf
Advertisement
August 16, 2008
There's a focus on power plays instead of the economic nightmare, writes Matt Wade.
INSIDE Pakistan's vast white-concrete National Assembly building there is a tatty cafeteria where MPs, party apparatchiks and journalists gather to smoke, drink tea and talk politics.
The patrons have had a juicy power struggle to mull over since the governing coalition said a week ago it would impeach the President, Pervez Musharraf. Would he quit or stand and fight?
Musharraf's future has been an abiding obsession for Pakistan's political elite. But three kilometres from the Parliament building in a grim Islamabad slum called "One Hundred Quarters" the conversations are different.
Musharraf's fate hardly rates a mention in the small makeshift hut where Cornelius Gull lives with 12 members of his extended family. They are busy trying to work out how they will survive the deepening economic crisis.
The inflation rate surged to 24.3 per cent last month, compared with 6.3 per cent a year ago. Poor families like Gull's have been hit hard by the fast-rising cost of food and fuel. Food-price inflation is at nearly 34 per cent.
"It is more important for these politicians to tackle the problem of price hikes than this thing with the President," says Gull, who is 31 and unemployed. The family no longer buys meat and has no savings for medicines. "We eat only beans and a few vegetables," he said.
Poor families across the country are being squeezed.
Shujat Ali, who works as a security guard at a government building in central Islamabad, says rising prices are causing "misery" for his family.
"I don't mind if it is Musharraf or any other politician, I just want someone to give us some solace from these high prices," says the father of five.
Even before this year's upwards price spiral, one in every four Pakistanis went to bed hungry at night. Nearly a third of all children are malnourished and lack safe water and household sanitation. One in 10 children did not survive their fifth birthday, with most deaths due to diarrhoea, pneumonia or vaccine-preventable diseases, the United Nations Children's Fund says.
The crippling bout of inflation is likely to make things worse.
Dr Zafar Mueen Nasir, an economist who advises the Pakistan Ministry of Labour, says the price surge is taking a dire toll. "We see a lot of distress in families and the rate of suicides have increased significantly," he says. "Some independent research is showing that poverty indicators like infant and maternal mortality rates are on the increase."
Pakistan's fragile coalition Government, elected five months ago, blames record oil prices and a global food shortage for its inflation problems. It hopes to reduce price growth to 12 per cent this financial year but many economists doubt it can be achieved. Prices are not the only challenge. Unemployment is rising, the sharemarket is in free-fall and there are chronic power shortages.
In the late 1990s Pakistan had a power-generation surplus but has lapsed into severe deficit after a decade of underinvestment. The economy is hampered by a regime of load-shedding (engineered outages). In the big cities of Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad power is off for six hours a day. In some rural areas it is off for up to 18 hours a day.
"We did not adequately invest in power generation and this is now stunting our growth," Nasir says. "Our industrial sector and our exports are being affected by this power shortage."
Asif Mehmood, who runs a small office-supplies store in Islamabad, says constant power cuts and rampant inflation have played havoc with his business.
"This load-shedding is causing so many problems for us," he said. "Along with the price hikes it has seriously affected my business." Mehmood estimates his income has been halved over the past year. "I have never thought of moving abroad, but in these circumstances I have started to plan for that. All we can do is hope things improve."
The debilitating political stand-off has coincided with a growing Taliban-led insurgency, especially in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. More than 100,000 people are reported to have fled heavy fighting between government troops and Taliban militants near the border in the past fortnight.
Suicide bombers haunt Pakistan's cities. Independence Day celebrations on Thursday were soured when a terrorist blew himself up at a busy marketplace in Lahore on Wednesday night, killing nine and injuring about 50.
Resolute political will and disciplined policies are needed to confront Pakistan's economic and security crises. Instead, the Government has been embroiled in power plays.
Sheikh Waqas Akram, an MP from Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid), says the threat to impeach Musharraf created unnecessary instability and confusion. "Do we really need this right now?" he said.
However the Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, said he was determined to "usher in an era where there was no dictatorship but democracy".
Pakistan's nuclear-armed rival India is worried about Pakistan's governance after Musharraf. India's national security adviser, M K Narayanan, angered the Pakistan Government this week when he said Musharraf's departure would leave a "big vacuum" that could leave "radical extremist outfits with freedom to do what they like".
Many of the economic problems facing the Government were left by its predecessor. There were hopes that the main partners in the governing coalition, the Pakistan People's Party, which represents workers, and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), traditionally closer to business, would come up with strategies to revive the economy that had widespread support.
But since the coalition came to power in February, there has been little evidence of a coherent policy response to the challenges. The budget deficit is likely to balloon above 7 per cent of GDP, adding to the economic instability.
Investors have been voting with their feet: Karachi's sharemarket has shed 35 per cent of its value since April. The rupee has lost 25 per cent of its value against the US dollar this year - a clear sign that foreign investors are baling out.
The exchange-rate slump will add to inflationary pressure by making imports more costly.
Musharraf's removal will not necessarily allow the Government to devote its full attention to economic and security problems.
The main parties in the governing coalition are traditional rivals. They have not functioned well in coalition so far. There is a danger Musharraf's departure will give way to more political uncertainty as the two parties jostle for advantage.
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